COVID-19 Diagnostics Markets 2027–2031

COVID-19 Diagnostics Markets: Market Forecast, Competitive Landscape, Technology and Policy Outlook, 2027–2031

Global forecasts by technology, test panel, setting, product and sample type, for 14 countries and regions, with 37 company profiles.

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Our Take

COVID-19 testing has become a seasonal respiratory routine, and the value is moving into combination tests. Tests that look only for SARS-CoV-2 shrink every year, while tests that also find flu and RSV, in the lab, the clinic, the pharmacy and the home, take their place. The market grows slowly, from $6,930 million in 2026 to $7,400 million in 2031, at 1.3% a year. The end of emergency use authorisations on 26 December 2026 will clear out tests without a full FDA submission and reward the companies that already hold clearances.

Market Size 2026: USD $6.93B   Market Size 2031: USD $7.4B   CAGR: 1.3%

Situation Analysis: what is really happening

• Emergency authorisations are ending. HHS ended the COVID-19 emergency declaration behind test authorisations, so emergency use authorisations for COVID tests end on 26 December 2026 unless the FDA has accepted a full submission.
• Combination tests take over. SARS-CoV-2-only tests fall from $3,361.0 million to $2,627.0 million, while combination tests grow from $3,569.0 million to $4,773.0 million. COVID + flu + RSV is the fastest-growing panel at 7.2% a year.
• Multiplex PCR overtakes antigen. Multiplex PCR grows 7.0% a year to $2,331.0 million and passes rapid antigen, at $2,035.0 million in 2031, while point-of-care molecular testing grows 6.5% a year.
• Home molecular testing returns. The FDA cleared Visby Medical's at-home flu and COVID-19 PCR test and Aptitude's Metrix COVID test, after Lucira and Cue left the market.
• A mild season hit vendors. Danaher's respiratory testing sales fell about 30% in Q3 2026, bioMérieux cut its guidance as BIOFIRE respiratory panels fell, and Abbott stopped reporting COVID sales separately.
• Surveillance is under pressure. The BA.3.2 variant was found in wastewater before clinical cases, just as US wastewater surveillance faced a funding cliff.

Company Analysis: who is positioned, who is exposed

• Cepheid (Danaher) and bioMérieux: Lead combination molecular testing in the lab and at the point of care, but felt the mild season most.
• Roche, Abbott and Hologic: High-throughput PCR leaders, with point-of-care and antigen lines that are now smaller and no longer reported separately.
• QuidelOrtho: A rapid-antigen leader that bought LEX Diagnostics to compete in fast point-of-care PCR.
• Visby Medical, Aptitude, ACON and iHealth: Home and point-of-care challengers with cleared products ahead of the end of emergency authorisations.
• Seegene, SD Biosensor and Chinese makers: Large Asian suppliers facing price pressure and the move to combination tests.
• Illumina, Oxford Nanopore, Verily and Ginkgo Biosecurity: Sequencing and wastewater surveillance, exposed to public funding.

In all, 37 company profiles, each one to two pages with a fact box covering website, headquarters, ownership, revenue, employees and key products.

Questions this report answers

• How large is the COVID-19 testing market now that it is endemic and seasonal?
• How fast will combination COVID, flu and RSV tests replace COVID-only tests?
• Which tests survive the end of emergency authorisations on 26 December 2026?
• Will point-of-care and home molecular tests take share from rapid antigen?
• What will reduced public funding mean for sequencing and wastewater surveillance?
• How large is each country market, and how is China's pricing reform changing it?

What's inside

• 290 pages, 23 chapters, 63 tables and 51 figures
• Forecasts for 2027–2031 from a 2026 base year, by technology, test panel, setting, product and sample type, for 14 countries and regions
• Laboratory molecular testing and multiplex panels, point-of-care and home testing, and combination COVID, flu and RSV testing
• Surveillance, sequencing and serology, regulation, reimbursement and policy, channels and pricing, and China, Asia-Pacific and emerging markets
• 10 market-moving developments from 2025 and 2026, SWOT, Porter's Five Forces and strategic recommendations
• 37 company profiles
• Download the Table of Contents (PDF)

Who buys this report

• Diagnostic companies and business development teams: plan products for combination and point-of-care respiratory testing.
• Laboratory and health-system leaders: plan seasonal capacity and the move to multiplex testing.
• Investors and analysts: model the post-pandemic market and the end of emergency authorisations.
• Public health programmes: plan surveillance after pandemic funding.

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ABOUT THE LEAD AUTHOR

Mr. Greg Powell, B.Sc., M.B.A., is the President of Howe Sound Research. His education includes:

Finance for Senior Executives - Harvard Business School

Market Research - Burke Institute

M.B.A. (Finance and Policy) - University of British Columbia

B.Sc. (Chemistry) - University of British Columbia

He is an experienced business and clinical professional. He is co-author of the paper "The Radioimmunoassay of Angiotensinogen by Antibody Trapping." He has worked in laboratory testing and management for over 20 years.